Future Labor Shortage?
Peter Capelli, director of Wharton School's Center for Human Resources, admits that there may be challenges ahead for HR departments. But, he says, these challenges will be driven by economics, not demographics.
There is already an abundant supply of labor that is either not currently participating in the labor force or unemployed: even now, the economy is not currently at full employment. He goes on to say that many challenges faced by HR departments are really of their own creation: jobs are too specialized, requirements are too narrow, and turnover is too high, because companies don't do a good job identifying, selecting, and retaining the best performing employees. "It is safe to say that the greater mobility of labor and the greater pressure to hire from the outside have increased the labor market challenges that human resource departments have to manage independent of the state of the economy," says Capelli.
The article is more thorough, both for and against shortages, but I tend to think that the issue of quality of hire will become increasingly important.